Up to 80 percent of the labor force in low-income countries works in agri-food, mostly on the farm. In high-income countries, the proportion is still about 10 percent, more than half of them off the farm, in the related food industry and services, and many, migrant workers. Unsurprisingly, much hope is pinned on the agri-food system to tackle the global challenges of good-job creation and poverty reduction.

Meanwhile, agricultural automation is advancing rapidly, especially in developed countries; localization of food production is reducing access to external markets for developing countries; and anti-migrant sentiments are flying high. COVID-19 reinforces these trends of digitization and deglobalization. Furthermore, employment in agri-food historically declines as countries develop.

Overall, the challenge is to transition to fewer and better paying agri-food jobs—on-farm and increasingly off-farm along the agri-food chains—without causing social havoc and making maximum use of the many employment opportunities agri-food will continue to offer, particularly for youth. This challenge is going to be especially salient in Africa.

This process takes time. As a result, the agri-food system will remain a major employer for many decades, especially for lower-skilled workers in low and low-middle income countries, even though the trend in agricultural employment is fundamentally downward. Agricultural productivity is a key driver of this structural change. In the developing world during 1960-2000, every half-ton increase in staple yields generated a 14 to 19 percent higher GDP per capita and a 4.6 to 5.6 percent lower labor share in agriculture five years later. Continued investment in public goods is required to make agriculture more productive and help sort its workers into on- and off-farm activities including those in agri-food chains.

Read the full article about agri-food at Brookings.